| 引用本文: | 赵珺,杜雅楠,盛春阳,王伟.基于核的冶金煤气流量在线区间预测[J].控制理论与应用,2013,30(10):1274~1280.[点击复制] |
| ZHAO Jun,DU Ya-nan,SHENG Chun-yang,WANG Wei.Kernel-based method for predicting online gas flow interval in metallurgical enterprises[J].Control Theory and Technology,2013,30(10):1274~1280.[点击复制] |
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| 基于核的冶金煤气流量在线区间预测 |
| Kernel-based method for predicting online gas flow interval in metallurgical enterprises |
| 摘要点击 2305 全文点击 1783 投稿时间：2013-03-01 修订日期：2013-04-02 |
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| DOI编号 10.7641/CTA.2013.30150 |
| 2013,30(10):1274-1280 |
| 中文关键词 煤气流量 核方法 区间预测 参数优化 共轭梯度 |
| 英文关键词 gas flow kernel-based method interval prediction parameter optimization conjugate gradient |
| 基金项目 国家自然科学基金资助项目(61034003, 61104157). |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 针对冶金企业煤气系统的流量区间预测问题, 本文提出一种基于核的在线区间预测构造方法, 该方法将传统预测区间构造过程中对雅克比矩阵的复杂计算转化为对核的计算, 大大降低了计算成本. 为确定所提方法的超参数, 采用共轭梯度下降算法来优化模型预测误差, 使其逼近样本数据中有效噪声的方差. 为验证本文所提方法的有效性, 对现场实时数据库中的煤气流量数据进行了仿真实验, 其结果表明本文方法在预测精度、可靠性和实时性三方面都表现出明显的优势. |
| 英文摘要 |
| In the kernel-based method, the calculation of the Jacobian matrix for determining the predicted interval in routine methods is converted into the calculation of kernels, thus greatly reducing the calculation costs. The hyperparameters of the proposed model are determined by employing the conjugate gradient algorithm to minimize the model prediction error, making it to approach the variance of the effective noises in the sample data. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, we apply this method to construct prediction intervals of real gas flow data collection from the energy center of a steel plant. Results indicate that the proposed method is highly accurate and reliable with low computational costs. |
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