| 引用本文: | 韩曾晋， 牛志强.多模型自适应预报及其在电力规划负荷预报中的应用[J].控制理论与应用,1987,4(1):90~97.[点击复制] |
| Han Zengjin, Nu Zhichung.MULTIMODEL ADAPTIVE FORECASTING METHOD AND ITS APPLICATION TO LOAD FORECASTING IN POWER SYSTEM PLANNING[J].Control Theory and Technology,1987,4(1):90~97.[点击复制] |
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| 多模型自适应预报及其在电力规划负荷预报中的应用 |
| MULTIMODEL ADAPTIVE FORECASTING METHOD AND ITS APPLICATION TO LOAD FORECASTING IN POWER SYSTEM PLANNING |
| 摘要点击 823 全文点击 414 投稿时间：1985-04-04 修订日期：1986-07-14 |
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| DOI编号 |
| 1987,4(1):90-97 |
| 中文关键词 |
| 英文关键词 |
| 基金项目 |
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| 中文摘要 |
| 本文提出一种多模型自适应预报方法，预报系统由几个并行的多步预报器组成，最终预报由Bayes决策律决定。本法适用于随机快时变参数动态过程的预报，在我国工业用电量长期预报中应用此法获得了良好的效果。 |
| 英文摘要 |
| In this paper a multimodel-based method of adaptive forecasting in presented. The whole adaptive system consists of several multistep self-tuning predictors working in parallel. The final forecast is determined by using Bayes decision rule. This method is especially suitable for the forecasting of dynamic process with stochastic time-varying parameters. Application to the load forecasting for Electric power systems shows the advantage of the method. |